Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.009119 0.010299 0.011575 0.013058 0.014734 0.016571 0.018737
2025-11-30 0.007372 0.009025 0.010963 0.013403 0.016397 0.019955 0.024510
2025-12-07 0.006071 0.007853 0.010059 0.012994 0.016803 0.021589 0.028075
2025-12-14 0.005229 0.007075 0.009465 0.012791 0.017311 0.023256 0.031696
2025-12-21 0.004527 0.006367 0.008843 0.012427 0.017495 0.024429 0.034680
2025-12-28 0.004218 0.006144 0.008828 0.012850 0.018748 0.027113 0.039941
2026-01-04 0.003909 0.005877 0.008708 0.013091 0.019732 0.029465 0.044901
2026-01-11 0.003662 0.005671 0.008648 0.013394 0.020809 0.032012 0.050345
2026-01-18 0.003350 0.005332 0.008349 0.013296 0.021246 0.033604 0.054422
2026-01-25 0.003099 0.005060 0.008124 0.013281 0.021795 0.035388 0.058927
2026-02-01 0.002834 0.004742 0.007797 0.013064 0.021985 0.036592 0.062557
2026-02-08 0.002662 0.004558 0.007666 0.013154 0.022678 0.038658 0.067785
2026-02-15 0.002458 0.004308 0.007411 0.013021 0.022996 0.040145 0.072196
2026-02-22 0.002350 0.004214 0.007412 0.013331 0.024110 0.043091 0.079458
2026-03-01 0.002137 0.003915 0.007031 0.012926 0.023906 0.043682 0.082465
2026-03-08 0.001977 0.003697 0.006776 0.012724 0.024047 0.044893 0.086708
2026-03-15 0.001809 0.003452 0.006450 0.012361 0.023853 0.045456 0.089745
2026-03-22 0.001763 0.003430 0.006535 0.012783 0.025184 0.048993 0.098879
2026-03-29 0.001696 0.003363 0.006528 0.013022 0.026176 0.051947 0.107093
2026-04-05 0.001641 0.003315 0.006553 0.013324 0.027311 0.055264 0.116321
2026-04-12 0.001544 0.003175 0.006387 0.013226 0.027624 0.056948 0.122273
2026-04-19 0.001464 0.003063 0.006266 0.013211 0.028104 0.059004 0.129185
2026-04-26 0.001369 0.002913 0.006058 0.012995 0.028140 0.060131 0.134159